01963nam a2200397 a 4500 ebr10419632 CaPaEBR m u cr cn||||||||| 091015s2010 nyua sb 001 0 eng 2009041215 GBA9A1648 bnb 015396975 Uk 9780231150484 (cloth : alk. paper) 0231150482 (cloth : alk. paper) 9780231521673 (ebook) 0231521677 (ebook) CaPaEBR CaPaEBR (OCoLC)674689555 HG4529 .P67 2010eb 332.63/2042 22 Posner, Kenneth A. Stalking the black swan [electronic resource] : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / Kenneth A. Posner. New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, c2010. xv, 267 p. : ill. Includes bibliographical references and index. Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment. Electronic reproduction. Palo Alto, Calif. : ebrary, 2013. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries. Investment analysis. Investments Forecasting. Business cycles. Recessions. Electronic books. local ebrary, Inc. http://site.ebrary.com/lib/rucke/Doc?id=10419632 An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view 83920 83920