000			01963nam a2200397 a 4500
001			ebr10419632
003			CaPaEBR
006			m u
007			cr cn|||||||||
008			091015s2010 nyua sb 001 0 eng
010			_z 2009041215
015			_aGBA9A1648 _2bnb
016	7		_z015396975 _2Uk
020			_z9780231150484 (cloth : alk. paper)
020			_z0231150482 (cloth : alk. paper)
020			_z9780231521673 (ebook)
020			_z0231521677 (ebook)
040			_aCaPaEBR _cCaPaEBR
035			_a(OCoLC)674689555
050	1	4	_aHG4529 _b.P67 2010eb
082	0	4	_a332.63/2042 _222
100	1		_aPosner, Kenneth A.
245	1	0	_aStalking the black swan _h[electronic resource] : _bresearch and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / _cKenneth A. Posner.
260			_aNew York : _bColumbia Business School Publishing, _cc2010.
300			_axv, 267 p. : _bill.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505	0		_aForecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
533			_aElectronic reproduction. _bPalo Alto, Calif. : _cebrary, _d2013. _nAvailable via World Wide Web. _nAccess may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries.
650		0	_aInvestment analysis.
650		0	_aInvestments _xForecasting.
650		0	_aBusiness cycles.
650		0	_aRecessions.
655		7	_aElectronic books. _2local
710	2		_aebrary, Inc.
856	4	0	_uhttp://site.ebrary.com/lib/rucke/Doc?id=10419632 _zAn electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view
999			_c83920 _d83920